In April, McKinsey published its fifth annual quantum technology review. One figure in it deserves the attention of Estonian entrepreneurs: over 300 large enterprises worldwide are testing quantum computing to solve their real business problems. And there are more of these companies in Europe than in the United States.
Investors have also increased their stakes in quantum technology companies more than sixfold, and this is at the peak of the artificial intelligence boom.
In our view, this opens an opportunity for Estonian companies that will no longer be as easy to seize in a couple of years.
Who is already testing
The report names Airbus, E.ON, JPMorgan Chase, BMW, BASF, AstraZeneca, and HSBC as examples. These are industrial, energy, pharmaceutical, and financial companies solving their everyday problems with a new tool.
The first companies have moved from pilot projects to applying quantum computing in their workflows. Most are still in an earlier phase, conducting proof-of-concept pilots or co-developments with quantum firms.
The positive news is that, according to McKinsey’s analysis, 43% of quantum computing clients were from Europe and 29% from the United States. While quantum firms themselves are predominantly from the US, the users are more likely from Europe.
The growing interest of companies in using quantum computing is also reflected in money. The revenue of quantum computing firms exceeded the one billion dollar mark for the first time in 2025, and McKinsey forecasts this to reach $3.2 to $4.4 billion by 2028. At the same time, the share of the public sector and universities in the income of quantum technology companies has dropped from a third to 3 percent. Quantum computing is no longer a grant-supported science.
The growth of corporate interest has also convinced investors. In 2025, €10.9 billion was invested in quantum technology startups, which is 6.3 times more than the previous year.
Where companies are looking for value
The report assesses how important quantum computing will be for various fields by 2035. Four categories are clearly ahead of the rest. The following list provides an estimate of how much the adoption of quantum computing in each sector will help increase value added (lower costs and increase revenue):
- Logistics, transport, and routing. Value added growth of 2-4.5%, or €170 to €430 billion. Vehicle routing and scheduling, empty runs, container flows, disruption recovery, warehouse layout, and picking sequences.
- Energy and materials. Value added growth of 5-9%. In chemicals, €390 to €690 billion. Grid balancing for renewable energy integration, catalyst design, simulation of new materials, carbon capture.
- Financial services. Value added growth of 3-4.5%, or €350 to €520 billion. Portfolio and collateral optimization, pricing of derivatives, Monte Carlo risk simulations, fraud detection.
- Pharmaceuticals and life sciences. Value added of 3-4.5%, or €70 to €350 billion. Molecular simulation to screen drug candidates before they reach the lab.
These are largely optimization or simulation tasks that companies are already solving today. It is just that today, they are solved expensively or slowly.
What this means for an Estonian company
No need to invest in hardware. The most common misconception about quantum computing is that participating requires a machine. The report states the opposite.
Private sector companies access quantum computers as a cloud service, and it is public sector institutions that are buying their own hardware. IBM, EQM, IonQ, and Quantinuum are increasingly offering access on cloud platforms. According to McKinsey, this allows applications to be tested and run without owning expensive hardware or software, and it is the fastest-growing part of the market.
The same is evident in the budgets of large enterprises. A third of the large companies surveyed by McKinsey allocated over €8.5 million to quantum computing, but 44% of this went to developing use cases and applications, and the rest largely to integration and building their own people’s capabilities.
Talent must be grown today. The report names four obstacles: lack of talent, unclear use cases, insufficient management support, and the early maturity stage of the technology. The lack of talent will not improve over time, because large companies will skim the cream off the top, and smaller ones will have to grow their own talent anyway.
The good news is that there is no need to train a single superhuman. Hybrid solutions require a broad talent base covering both classical and quantum computing. Demand is growing not only for physicists but for engineers, software developers, and business people who can translate quantum capabilities into commercial applications.
Thus, in many cases, it is enough to start by teaching additional quantum skills to your existing data analysis team.
Quantum remains hybrid, and this means existing software will not go into the trash. The most practical sentence in the report is that a quantum computer is an accelerator, not a standalone system.
The only plausible path to value in the near term is hybrid. Classical systems do the heavy lifting, AI is responsible for learning and orchestration, and quantum is selectively applied to the most complex part of the task.
For an Estonian company, this means quantum will not replace anything. It amplifies what you already have, including your existing software solutions and LLM-based systems. The data-heavy part stays where it is today. To quantum goes that one subtask which is currently too expensive or too slow to solve.
Cryptography is the only part with a deadline. Everything preceding is an estimate. Cryptography is not. The European Union expects critical infrastructure—namely water, energy, healthcare, finance, and transport—to transition to quantum-safe cryptography by 2030, and the rest by 2035. The UK has set 2031 for high-risk systems and a full transition by 2035. The G7 expects the transition of critical systems in the financial sector between 2030 and 2032. NATO’s first quantum strategy also recommends member states move to quantum-safe cryptography.
Q-Day, the moment when a quantum computer can break current public-key cryptography, is estimated by the report to occur after 2028.
One nuance is important here. Several malicious actors are already operating today on the principle of “Harvest now, decrypt later.” This means that foreign encrypted data is being stored today with the forecast that it can be cracked open in 7-10 years.
Briefly for IT companies and startups
Hardware development is capital-intensive and concentrated in the hands of major powers and tech giants. However, the largest number of new quantum firms are emerging in the component and application software segments, and according to the report, application software is the most highly differentiated part of the value chain.
In our assessment, Estonia’s strong software sector fits perfectly into this layer: algorithms, the software layer, data preparation, and integration into existing systems.
What to do about it?
You do not need 10 million dollars to find out if your company has a suitable problem for quantum. You need three people and two and a half days.
QEst Hack 2026 will take place in Tallinn from November 11–13. Five corporate teams, your own problem, your own data, mentors from Canada, Finland, and Estonia. No quantum background is required. Participation and catering are free of charge; participants must cover transport and accommodation costs.
Info session held on September 29 for the hackathon is rewatchable HERE.
Applications for the hackathon are open until October 11.
Source: McKinsey Quantum Technology Monitor 2026
