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Listen to the podcast: is quantum computing in a boom or bust?

As part of sTARTUp Day 2025, Metrosert, in collaboration with Startup Estonia, organized a quantum technology seminar, marking the kickoff of the year´s quantum technology events. 

In the photo (from left to right): Kalev Kaarna, Teppo Seesto, Mari Aru (Head of the Science and Development Division, Metrosert), Nataly Dubbelman (Quantum Technology Coordinator, Metrosert), Johannes Heinsoo.

During the seminar, Metrosert hosted representatives from leading global quantum technology companies – IBM’s Quantum Technology Ambassador, Teppo Seesto, and IQM Quantum Engineer, Johannes Heinsoo.

IBM is one of the world’s leading developers of quantum technology, investing in both quantum hardware and software development. IBM’s online Qiskit Runtime quantum computing platform has over 600,000 users. IQM, a European leader in quantum computer manufacturing, originates from Finland. IQM’s revenue exceeded 10 million euros in 2022, and the company remains on a trajectory of fourfold growth. The discussions with top experts in the quantum field were moderated by Metrosert’s project manager, Kalev Kaarna.

A recording of the discussion, held at the Deep Tech Lounge stage on whether quantum computing is heading for a boom or a nuclear winter, is available here:

Key topics discussed at the sTARTUp Day 2025 Quantum Technology seminar:
  • What did NVIDIA’s CEO Jensen Huang fail to mention when he said that quantum computers will only become truly useful in 20 years?
  • How are quantum computers already being used today?
  • What quantum technology products could turn startups into unicorns?
  • Where do quantum computers have advantages over cloud computing?

Not all problems are best solved by quantum computers—many can be handled more efficiently with cloud computing. Additionally, all current quantum computing applications rely on hybrid solutions, meaning part of the task is solved by a quantum computer, and part by cloud computing.

Key areas where quantum technology offers the greatest advantages: 

1. Simulations – Primarily the simulation of small particles. Used in chemistry, materials science, and pharmaceuticals, for example, in the discovery of new materials and drugs, as well as in financial simulations. Companies like BMW and Volkswagen have used quantum computing to simulate electrolyte reaction pathways to improve battery performance.

2. Artificial intelligence and machine learning – Solving optimization problems, including investment portfolio management and improving machine learning models. Allianz uses quantum computers for pattern and anomaly detection to uncover fraud.

3. Optimization – Applied in logistics and manufacturing process optimization. Infineon has used quantum computing to optimize waste management, planning garbage truck routes based on sensor data.

Significant developments are also underway in post-quantum cryptography to prepare for the moment when quantum computers will be able to break today’s encryption solutions.

What did NVIDIA’s CEO forget to mention?

NVIDIA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, stated that highly useful quantum computing applications will only emerge in 20 years. However, he failed to mention two crucial aspects:

NVIDIA itself is actively investing in quantum technology. The company is focused on quantum simulations and quantum-classical hybrid computing. NVIDIA has launched Quantum Cloud, enabling scientists and developers to create and test new quantum algorithms and applications via the cloud, including powerful simulators and hybrid programming tools that integrate classical computing with quantum solutions.

Quantum technology already has practical applications in research and development. In the next few years, its usage will expand significantly, particularly in pharmaceuticals, chemistry, logistics, and artificial intelligence.

    How to build a Quantum Technology unicorn?

    As with any gold rush, the first to profit are usually the tool sellers. The same applies to quantum computing. The Finnish company Bluefors, which manufactures ultra-low-temperature refrigeration systems critical for quantum computers, has grown into a world leader with a turnover of 190 million euros.

    While there are still opportunities in hardware, development is increasingly shifting from hardware to software. A key area is developing software systems that can manage multiple quantum processors and effectively integrate quantum and classical computing resources. This would enable the coordination of quantum computing clusters and parallel processing, optimizing task distribution and resource utilization.

    Another area accessible to Estonian startups is the creation of quantum algorithms, applications, and simulations. This software will enhance the practical usability of quantum computers in various fields.

    A broader expansion of quantum computing applications is likely to follow in the coming years, once two major breakthroughs are achieved: increasing the number of qubit connections and improving error correction efficiency.

    In simple terms, the computing power of quantum computers is measured in qubits. For instance, IQM’s quantum computers, designed for university quantum computing education, have four qubits. IBM’s publicly accessible quantum computer, available via the web, has 150 qubits.

    Currently, most qubits are connected by just two links. The goal is to increase this to four or six connections per qubit, improving computation speed and reducing errors.

    Errors in quantum computing arise mainly due to the extreme sensitivity of qubits to electromagnetic noise and temperature fluctuations. Additionally, quantum operations are not perfect, and small errors accumulate, making the final result inaccurate and non-reproducible.

    For context, even a standard laptop processor makes occasional errors, but engineers have developed ways to manage these errors, ensuring that in a typical laptop, 2+2 always equals 4. In the near future, breakthroughs in quantum error correction are expected to ensure that quantum computers also consistently produce reliable results.

    Metrosert continues to monitor quantum technology developments and collaborate with leading industry and research institutions to support the advancement of scientific and industrial applications in Estonia.